A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
