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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still